Blue Jays, Orioles set to begin stretch of divisional games

Baseball Betting Lines

05/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Already 18 games out of first place in the American League East, the Baltimore Orioles can at least try to have some fun by shaking up the standings with 12 straight matchups against their division opponents.

The Orioles will kick off their tour through the AL East tonight with the first of three straight meetings with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. They will also visit the Yankees for three games before hosting Boston and New York for six encounters at Camden Yards.

Baltimore has dropped four of five and nine of its last 12 games, including the final two portions of a three-game home series versus the Oakland Athletics. In Thursday's 7-5 loss to the A's, Mark Hendrickson gave up three runs during a decisive five-run eighth inning to absorb the loss and blow a three-run lead for the Orioles, who got seven innings out of starter Brad Bergesen. Bergesen permitted four runs on four hits and three walks.

"You take a three-run lead in there to the eighth and a lot of things happen that don't go your way," said O's manager Dave Trembley. "You make the decisions that you think are the right ones and you hope they work out."

Miguel Tejada drove in two runs, Matt Wieters had two hits and an RBI and Julio Lugo finished 3-for-5 with a run scored in defeat.

Orioles outfielder Adam Jones finished with two hits and has hit in a career- high 13 straight games, going 16-for-50 with a .320 batting average in that time. He has hit safely in 18 of his last 19 contests.

Innings-eater Kevin Millwood could use some offensive firepower when he takes the mound tonight for the O's. Millwood is 0-4 with a 3.71 earned run average in 10 starts and has posted three straight no-decisions. He previously took the hill at Nationals Park in Washington on Sunday and gave up three runs, struck out eight and allowed eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 loss.

Millwood is 0-3 in five road starts this season and will face Toronto for the second time in 2010. He lost to the Blue Jays in a 5-2 decision on April 11 at Camden Yards, where he yielded four runs (1 earned) over 7 2/3 frames. The veteran right-hander is just 2-5 with a 4.80 ERA in 10 career starts against Toronto and is 1-3 in six lifetime starts at Rogers Centre.

Toronto commences its own barrage of matchups with the American League East and will kick off a nine-game homestand Friday versus the Orioles, Rays and Yankees. It will then visit Tampa Bay for three meetings to complete the 12- game journey against division foes.

The Blue Jays have dropped five of seven games and just lost the last two installments of a three-game road set against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They suffered a 6-5 loss in Wednesday's series finale as Angels outfielder Bobby Abreu drove in the game-winning run with a single in the bottom of the ninth.

Scott Downs was saddled with the loss, while Edwin Encarnacion and Jeremy Reed had two RBI apiece for the Blue Jays, who went 3-5 on an eight-game road trip.

"Our guys never quit. It's another tough loss," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said. "I like the way our guys kept battling."

Brandon Morrow started for the Jays and did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs and three hits in five innings.

Toronto is currently tied with Boston at 6 1/2 games off the AL East lead.

Shaun Marcum will lead the Jays into tonight's series opener and has been on a roll since late April. Marcum opened the season 0-1 with a 4.00 earned run average in his first four starts, but is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA in six starts since. He is coming off last Sunday's 12-4 win at Arizona in which he scattered three runs through five innings. Marcum also struck out eight batters to push his 2010 mark to 4-1 in 10 starts.

The right-hander faced Baltimore earlier this season in a 5-2 win at Camden Yards, but did not record a decision with six innings of two-run ball. Marcum is only 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA in 11 career games -- nine starts -- in this series.

Toronto swept the Orioles in three games back in early April and has won eight of the past 11 contests between the clubs. Baltimore is winless in its last five visits to Rogers Centre.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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