Arizona's NCAA run all but over at 25

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 -

LOS ANGELES (AP) -Arizona's streak of 25 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances is all but over.

The Wildcats lost to UCLA 75-69 in the Pac-10 tournament on Thursday night, dropping their record to 16-15, a number that almost certainly won't be good enough for the NCAA selection committee this time.

The record is still good enough for the NIT, but not for Arizona freshman Lamont Jones, who came to Arizona fully aware of the streak.

``That's what everybody talks about,'' he said. ``That's the history of the program and the culture of the program, and we just have to understand that. Unfortunately, we're not going to make it this year, but I guarantee we're going to get back there next year.''

The Wildcats salvaged NCAA tournament appearances the last two years, extending their streak thanks mostly to the prestige built by the Pac-10. With a roster dominated by underclassmen, their chances of making it again seemed unlikely.

``Everybody knew from the beginning of the season that it would be tough. We barely made it last year, so it would be even tougher this year,'' said Nic Wise, who led the Wildcats with 16 points. ``It's just been a great accomplishment, and it's tough to have it end this year.''

Derrick Williams added 14 for Arizona, which lost in the Pac-10 quarterfinals for the third consecutive year.

Arizona's NCAA tourney streak began in 1985 under Lute Olson, and ended with first-year coach Sean Miller, who noted he was 16 and ``just learning how to drive'' when the run began.

``Any coach that comes to Arizona is going to find he's a paranoid coach,'' said Miller, who arrived in Tucson in April to find Wise on the fence about returning for his senior season. ``The reason I came to Arizona is to rebuild our program. We have a possibility to get a NIT bid. It's a terrific tournament. I feel very, very good about what we've been able to accomplish.''

Reeves Nelson returned for the Bruins Thursday afternoon, scoring 19 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in UCLA's quarterfinal win. The Bruins will face top-seeded California, which dispatched Oregon 90-74 later Thursday night.

The Bruins (14-17) have also fallen on hard times. Unless they can win the tournament, the Bruins likely aren't going anywhere except back to Westwood to contemplate how losing so much of their best talent to the NBA draft did them in.

Kevin Love would have been a junior this season, but he jumped to the NBA. Nelson is no Love, but he is the Bruins' only solid inside presence offensively.

``He has great strength,'' coach Ben Howland said. ``When he has the ball, it's very hard to wedge it from him.''

Michael Roll and Nikola Dragovic added 18 points each, extending their careers for at least another game.

``As I was telling the guys, 'I'm just really not ready to go home,''' Roll said. ``Being out there is fun.''

Arizona played catch-up the entire game, but got to 58-55 with 7:52 remaining on two free throws by Solomon Hill. But the Bruins kept making free throws - they hit 77 percent in the second half - and Malcolm Lee hit a big 3-pointer to push their lead to 64-57 with 5 1/2 minutes left.

``We're not a good defensive team,'' Miller said. ``We'll be better in the future.''

And hope is all Miller has to sustain him as he follows in the Hall-of-Fame footsteps of Olson.

``That's my only choice,'' he said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.

The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.

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A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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